Bulgaria's presidential election is going to a runoff on November 1 after no candidate came close to a majority in Sunday's first round. Exit polls by three agencies put the incumbent, President Iliana Iotova, and her running mate Kiril Valchev in front on 35 to 36.5 per cent, with former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev behind them on about 32 per cent — a far tighter race than the final pre-election polls, which had given Iotova 40 to 45 per cent. One parallel count put Gyurov a fraction ahead, and the first official returns, with about 7 per cent counted, ran Iotova 39.5 per cent to Gyurov's 33.7 per cent.
Turnout collapsed. The agencies estimated that only about 21 to 22 per cent of Bulgaria's 6.6 million registered voters cast a ballot — roughly 1.47 million people — against expectations of about 39 per cent, and the election commission had counted just 16 per cent by 4 p.m. Under Bulgaria's rules a first-round win needs more than half the valid votes on turnout above 50 per cent, so the low participation alone made a runoff certain. Kostadin Kostadinov of the Revival party finished third on about 13 to 15 per cent, at the head of a field of 27 tickets.
The runoff is a straight choice over the war in Ukraine. Iotova, backed by Prime Minister Rumen Radev, has campaigned on diplomacy — negotiations to end the fighting, in a country where public exhaustion with the war runs deep. Gyurov, supported by pro-Western reformist parties, signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine while serving as caretaker prime minister and argues for stronger backing for Kyiv. The campaign ran under the shadow of deadly drone attacks on merchant ships off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, which both candidates condemned while drawing opposite lessons from them, alongside inflation, energy prices and deep distrust of politicians.
Bulgaria's president is directly elected for five years, commands the armed forces and can veto legislation — and this one will be decided by whichever side can drag a disengaged electorate back to the polls next Sunday. The voters of the eliminated candidates, above all Revival's, now hold the balance. For Washington and NATO, the stakes sit on the Black Sea: whether Bulgaria's next president pushes for a negotiated end to the war or deepens the alliance's support for Ukraine will be settled on November 1 by a country where four voters in five stayed home.
Never miss a story.Join our Telegram channel and get every article link the second it is published.
Join Telegram Channel