North Carolina's last uncalled House race flipped on Tuesday evening. Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. moved ahead of Republican Rep. Greg Murphy in the state's 3rd District as counties added provisional ballots to the count, and the Associated Press tally showed Smith at 118,341 votes to Murphy's 118,040 — a lead of 301 votes with an estimated 99 percent of votes counted. The race remains too early to call.
The lead changed hands in two steps on Tuesday. A Pitt County update first put Smith in front by 255 votes, at 118,242 to 117,987, and a Wilson County update then stretched the lead to 301. It is a reversal of election night, when unofficial totals had Murphy ahead by 233 votes and the congressman declared victory, calling the contest tough-fought and razor-thin. Smith never conceded. Murphy lost his home county of Pitt heavily, taking 25,666 votes there to Smith's 36,071, while Smith lost his own home county of Wayne narrowly, 18,530 to Murphy's 19,565.
The count is not finished. Provisional and absentee ballots are still being processed — more than 36,000 provisional ballots were cast statewide by November 4 — and the counties hold their official canvass on Friday, November 13. At roughly 0.13 percent, the margin sits well inside the 1 percent threshold that lets a trailing candidate demand a recount in North Carolina, and Smith's campaign is already raising money for one.
The flip lands in a district drawn in 2023 to favour Republicans — a seat Democrats did not even contest in 2024, when they ran no candidate in the 3rd District at all. The district takes in Camp Lejeune, one of the largest Marine Corps bases in the country. Smith, a Goldsboro native, is an Army veteran and a former North Carolina state lawmaker.
For the voters of eastern North Carolina — including the military families of Camp Lejeune — the provisional count is the system working as promised: ballots cast by people who showed up and voted are being verified and counted before anyone is declared the winner. And in a House this closely divided, the seat itself helps decide which party sets the agenda in Washington on taxes, spending and the cost of living for every American household.
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