Twice in three days, President Trump has been asked whether American bombs are about to fall on Iran again — and twice he has said the opposite of hurry. At Mar-a-Lago on Saturday he said he is "not in much of a hurry" to restart strikes on Iran. Then on Monday, after his speech at the Reflecting Pool in Washington, a reporter asked whether he is considering strikes on Iran after Tuesday's midterms. His answer, as the press pool reported it, was one word: "No." The President pointed to the oil market as the tell: prices are falling, he said, because of expectations of a deal — and he has said a deal with Tehran is pretty close and that Iran wants one.
The numbers agree with him. Oil has fallen nearly $10 a barrel as traders price in an agreement instead of a wider war. The diplomacy behind the signals is the track this page has been following for days: Iranian negotiators were in Doha last week as a draft American deal circulated, with Tehran offering — under its seven-step plan to end the war and the American naval blockade — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil passes. Nothing has been signed, and the White House has announced no agreement; what has changed is the President's public posture, from threats of renewed strikes to patience.
For American households, this is the version of the Iran story that shows up in their own budgets. A strike campaign that shuts the Strait of Hormuz is the fastest route there is to $5 gasoline; a negotiated reopening is the opposite — cheaper fuel, cheaper freight, cheaper everything that moves by truck or ship. The President's argument, made all autumn, is that the pressure — the blockade, the sanctions, the demonstrated willingness to strike — is what brought Tehran to the table, and that the deal now being priced into the oil market is the payoff. Whether Tehran signs is the open question; the President's answer on timing is that he can afford to wait.
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