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Michigan voters are deciding one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country on Tuesday, November 3, with the final New York Times/Siena College poll putting Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 11 points.
The poll, conducted October 23 to November 1 among 1,011 likely voters and released on November 1, put El-Sayed at 53 percent and Rogers at 42 percent, with a margin of error of about 3.6 percentage points. It was the widest lead for El-Sayed in the final round of polling.
Other late polls showed a narrower contest. YouGov put El-Sayed ahead 51 percent to 47 percent, Research Co. put him ahead 48 percent to 46 percent, CNN/SSRS put him ahead 49 percent to 42 percent, and Mitchell Research put him ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. The 270toWin average of recent polls put El-Sayed at 50.8 percent and Rogers at 44.9 percent.
The seat is open, held by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters. El-Sayed, a physician and former Wayne County public health director, won the Democratic primary on August 4, narrowly defeating Representative Haley Stevens. Rogers, a former congressman and former FBI agent, is making his second statewide Senate run after narrowly losing to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024.
If El-Sayed wins, he would become the first Muslim elected to the United States Senate, a milestone that has drawn national attention to the race.
The race has also been shaken in its final days by Stevens endorsing Rogers on November 1, after losing the primary to El-Sayed. Stevens said El-Sayed had made clear she was not welcome in his campaign, while El-Sayed's campaign has pointed to his economic message.
Forecasters have moved in El-Sayed's favour in the final days, with the Cook Political Report moving the seat from Toss-up to Lean Democrat on Monday, citing new public and private polling including the New York Times/Siena survey. Prediction markets still left room for an upset: Kalshi traders gave El-Sayed about a 78 to 80 percent chance of winning on Election Day, with Rogers at about 20 percent.
Polls are snapshots of opinion before Election Day, not results. Michigan's Senate contest is one of a handful that will help decide control of the Senate.