MS NOW has reported, citing three senior Gulf Arab officials, that the Trump administration has briefed Gulf allies to prepare for a short but intense round of U.S. strikes on Iran as early as Wednesday, November 4 — the day after Tuesday's midterm elections. The officials were granted anonymity to share sensitive discussions, and the report does not name the countries they serve.
The warning does not rest on one report. The Associated Press reported on October 29, from two diplomats briefed on the matter, that U.S. officials told several Middle East countries and regional allies to prepare for possible renewed action after the midterms and for possible Iranian retaliation, including against energy facilities and other crucial infrastructure. AP said a new round could last several days, and stressed that President Trump had not made a final decision. The Wall Street Journal had reported earlier on the administration's briefings to Gulf Arab countries.
On the record, the administration is neither confirming the plan nor ruling it out. The White House declined to comment on sensitive military plans; a White House official, not authorized to speak publicly, said the president keeps all options on the table to ensure Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday, October 31, that Trump "hasn't made a decision" on whether to resume strikes on Iran. No Pentagon or State Department statement confirming or denying the November 4 briefing has been issued.
Washington's Gulf allies, for their part, are pushing hard to de-escalate, worried about how Iran will retaliate. One Gulf official said he "would not be surprised" if some Gulf states pushed back on the United States carrying out strikes from bases in their countries. Qatar is mediating and has proposed a seven-day plan. The United Arab Emirates' foreign ministry has urged wisdom and political solutions, and Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, says Tehran continues to give diplomacy a chance.
The United States has not struck Iran since September 1, and Trump pledged no new attacks before the midterms. On the campaign trail in Florida, he warned of "another little Epic Fury" — the name given to the February campaign — if Iran does not concede on its nuclear program, and he has named Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried site tied to that program, as a possible target. Behind the diplomacy, the buildup continues: a third carrier strike group, led by USS Theodore Roosevelt with about 9,000 sailors and Marines, is due in the region at the end of November; Patriot batteries have been moved to Saudi Arabia and Qatar; and U.S. staffing has been reduced in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Lebanon amid warnings of attacks on U.S. personnel.
Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, citing a classified briefing he attended, has said a restart plan could include targeting civilian infrastructure. That is Murphy's characterization of the briefing; no confirmed target list has been published.
For Americans, the stake in the allies' warning is direct. The retaliation the Gulf states fear is aimed at energy facilities and at U.S. personnel in the region — the two channels through which a resumed war reaches American families, at the fuel pump and in the safety of the thousands of troops and workers stationed there. What is on the record so far is preparation: by the Secretary of State's own words, the decision to strike has not been made.
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