Mississippi's U.S. Senate race is heading into a ballot fight. Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by just 1,822 votes — 466,747 to 464,925 in the Associated Press tally — with about 96% of the expected vote counted and the race still uncalled. At a press conference on Thursday outside the Hinds County Courthouse in Jackson, Mississippi Republican Party Chairman Mike Hurst, who also serves as general counsel to the Republican National Committee, said Republicans estimate about 17,000 affidavit ballots and more than 3,000 mail-in ballots are still outstanding — roughly 20,000 ballots in all. Asked whether the affidavit number was normal for a Mississippi election, Hurst said: “To my knowledge, that is very abnormal in any race that we've seen in Mississippi's history.” For scale, the AP reported 7,612 affidavit ballots were cast in the entire 2022 midterm election in Mississippi, of which 5,710 were counted.
Affidavit ballots are Mississippi's version of provisional ballots — cast when a voter's name is not on the poll book or they lack an acceptable photo ID — and they are reviewed by county election commissioners before they count. Hurst said the party has more than 50 volunteer lawyers and observers working around the state, that some counties have refused to share their affidavit numbers, which he called “a little suspect,” and that Republicans are prepared to litigate if procedures are not followed. “We at the Mississippi Republican Party are going to fight like hell to make sure that every legal vote that was cast is counted,” he said, adding: “We believe if the laws are followed to a T, and these 20,000 outstanding ballots are counted, that Senator Hyde-Smith will be reelected.” On Thursday, lawyers for the Hyde-Smith campaign sent a letter to election officials in all 82 counties demanding that every affidavit ballot be separated, secured and preserved, accepted, rejected and unresolved alike; the National Republican Senatorial Committee released the letter the same day.
Secretary of State Michael Watson has given the official numbers as they stand: by Thursday night, 6,936 affidavit ballots had been processed with roughly 80% of them accepted, and about 3,300 absentee mail ballots were still out; by Friday, the processed affidavit count had risen to 9,242. Watson has not confirmed the Republicans' estimate of how many affidavit ballots remain in total. One reason the number may be high: more than 100 precincts were changed or closed in Mississippi this year, which pushed more voters onto affidavit ballots. The Colom campaign answered the preservation letter by accusing Republicans of seeking to violate Mississippi voters' rights, and Colom's campaign manager called the move a “desperate stunt.” Voters who cast an affidavit ballot for lack of photo ID have until November 10 to cure it, and counties must certify by November 13. Mississippi law gives candidates no right to demand a recount, so the fight will be over which of these ballots count.
For Mississippi voters, what happens next is simple and personal: a Senate seat — and with it, part of the balance of power in Washington — will be decided by whether roughly 20,000 pieces of paper were filled in, sealed and reviewed exactly as the law requires. Every voter who cast one of those ballots can check whether it was accepted, and anyone who voted without photo ID has until November 10 to fix it at their circuit clerk's office and make their vote count.
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