Quebec is voting today, and the separatists are on the brink of taking it back.
Polls are open from 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. EDT across the province, and 1.6 million Quebecers already cast ballots in advance polling from September 25 to October 1. When the results land tonight, the Parti Québécois is positioned to return to government for the first time in more than a decade — ending eight years of Coalition Avenir Québec rule under Premier Christine Fréchette.
The PQ's rise is the story of a collapsed dynasty. The party held just three seats after the 2022 election. The CAQ, meanwhile, has governed with big majorities since 2018 but has bled support through a grinding two years — and this campaign became a five-way fight with the Liberals under Charles Milliard, Québec solidaire under co-spokespersons Ruba Ghazal and Sol Zanetti, and a surging Conservative Party under Éric Duhaime.
Here's where the Trump factor enters the story — and it's a big one. Plamondon has said plainly that he will not call a sovereignty referendum while Donald Trump is president, a stance reported by Reuters that effectively pushes any referendum to 2029. Even Quebec separatists are timing their plans around this White House.
The two camps are making their case in starkly different terms. The PQ argues Quebecers have the right to decide their own future, and that a new generation of voters is ready for it. Federalist rivals — Fréchette's CAQ, the Liberals, and the Conservatives — warn that separation would be economic self-harm, and they point to the evidence in front of voters: Quebec has been one of the hardest-hit provinces in the deepening U.S.–Canada trade war, with Trump's tariffs hammering the province's manufacturers. The separatists' own caution about the timing is an admission that the economic stakes under this administration are real.
What to watch tonight: whether the PQ clears a majority or falls into minority territory, how far the CAQ craters, and what the Conservative surge means for the right in Quebec. The referendum question is settled for now — 2029 at the earliest. But the government that will ask it gets chosen today.