U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks with India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai on Tuesday, and came out of the meeting saying a U.S.–India trade agreement is nearly done, with only a handful of items left to settle before it can be announced and signed. The talks, held on the first day of Rubio's three-day visit to India, ranged across trade, energy, technology and defence, as well as regional developments, according to the Associated Press.
Rubio told reporters in Mumbai that the State Department does not itself negotiate trade agreements, but that he and the National Security Advisor are very much involved in what is happening and "care a lot about it." His assessment of where the deal stands was emphatic: "We're very, very close. I would say we're about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement. I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly. We're hoping, which it should, and hopefully have some good news to announce soon and sign it thereafter."
"We're about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement."
The agreement has been a long time coming. The United States imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on most Indian goods in August 2025, and while a framework reached in February brought the rate down to 18 percent, the talks then stalled — Finance Minister Sitharaman said they had "plateaued." Commerce Minister Goyal has since said the first tranche of the deal is in its final stages, and Rubio's remarks were the clearest indication yet that the two sides are closing in on the finish.
The Mumbai meetings were not only bilateral. Rubio and Jaishankar were joined by the United Arab Emirates' Foreign Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, for a trilateral meeting focused on regional energy security and shared economic priorities. In a post on X after the talks, Rubio said he and Jaishankar "discussed energy security and defense cooperation while reaffirming the importance of advancing the U.S.-India strategic partnership."
Energy ran through the day's discussions. India buys discounted Russian crude, and Rubio said New Delhi has made "substantial progress" in diversifying its supplies, adding that the United States could be a source of some of India's energy inputs. He also called India a "refining superpower," saying it has the capability to refine heavy crude and could do more of it as more Venezuelan oil comes online. On Wednesday, Rubio travels to Gujarat to visit Reliance Industries' Jamnagar refinery, the largest in the world, and to meet Indian business leaders.
For both capitals, the stakes go well beyond a single agreement: India is the most populous country in the world and its largest democracy, an important commercial and business partner of the United States, and a key member of the Quad — and a signed deal would unwind one of the steepest tariff burdens Washington has placed on any trading partner. No deal was signed on Tuesday, and a small number of items remain open. But Rubio left no doubt about where things are heading: "We're very optimistic that we will have something in place here very soon."