President Donald Trump's political money machine is preparing to walk away from a competitive Michigan House race, even though Trump carried the district in 2024.
MAGA Inc. and a leading House Republican super PAC plan to withdraw spending from Michigan's 8th Congressional District by midweek, a GOP official familiar with the strategy told Politico, as reported Monday, October 12.
The move signals that Republicans believe Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet has the advantage over Republican challenger Tom Smith.
Trump won the district by roughly 50 percent to 48 percent in 2024, making it one of 13 House districts that backed him for president while electing a Democrat to Congress. The Cook Political Report now rates the seat "Likely Democrat."
Republican groups are preparing similar pullbacks in other House contests that have become harder to win. One senior GOP official described the strategy as "re-allocating, not cutting" spending, moving money away from races seen as out of reach and toward campaigns where it could make a difference.
"Over the next week to 10 days you will see a lot of moves — a lot of coordinated moves — that are around trimming the map for the home stretch," the GOP official said.
Top Republican Senate groups have already stopped spending in North Carolina and scaled back in Georgia, though millions more are still planned there.
MAGA Inc. has spent more than $22 million in Texas over the past month to support Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, with at least another $5 million expected. In Ohio, the Senate Leadership Fund has spent nearly $100 million as Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
MAGA Inc. and its affiliates have spent just over $200 million this cycle, including future advertising reservations, while holding a war chest of more than $400 million. One senior Republican official promised the group will "unload the tank" in the final stretch, but said it is "up to the candidates, not the outside groups" to "bring it home and have a reason to get a few more points of swing voters their way."
The pullback comes as Republicans brace for a difficult midterm. Several House districts Trump won by double digits in 2024 are now considered vulnerable, including seats in Ohio, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada, as well as a Kentucky district Trump carried by 15 points.
Polling has added to the pressure. Pollster Angus Reid has Democrats up 16 points on the generic congressional ballot, and AAA puts the national average price of gas at $4.35 a gallon and diesel at $6.26, as the war in Iran keeps energy prices high.
Voters in Michigan's 8th District will decide the race on November 3.
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