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Decision Desk HQ has projected Republican Senator Ashley Moody as the winner of Florida's special election for the United States Senate, defeating Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon and keeping the seat in Republican hands.
According to reports from Decision Desk HQ on November 3, 2026, Moody secured the victory in a tighter-than-expected race, holding a 0.7 percentage point lead with 84.3 percent of the vote counted at the time her victory was called.
Bloomberg Government, citing data compiled by the Associated Press, later put Moody at 49.8 percent against 49.1 percent for Nixon with 87 percent tallied, underlining how narrow the margin remained as counting continued. A third candidate, no-party-affiliation candidate Neil Gillespie, took about 1.1 percent of the vote in Decision Desk HQ's tally.
The contest was a special election for the remainder of the Senate term won in 2022 by Marco Rubio, who resigned in January 2025 to become Secretary of State. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed Moody, Florida's attorney general from 2019 to 2025, to fill the vacancy on January 21, 2025, and the winner will serve until a regular election for a full term in 2028.
Moody won the Republican primary on August 18 with 79.6 percent of the vote. Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville, won the Democratic primary with 56.1 percent, defeating former National Security Council official Alex Vindman in a major upset despite Vindman holding a large fundraising advantage.
The result was much closer than many forecasters had expected. The New York Times/Siena poll released on October 28 put Moody ahead 50 percent to 44 percent, the University of North Florida poll on October 21 put her ahead 49 percent to 45 percent, and the Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican on October 30. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Florida since 2012.
The projection is based on unofficial returns. The outcome becomes official when Florida certifies the results. Nixon had not issued a concession statement in the posts reviewed at the time of writing.