The final New York Times/Siena polls of the Senate races did not miss in one direction — they missed in both. In Michigan the poll overstated the Democrats by 5.3 points; in Texas it understated them by 4.9; in Kansas it landed almost exactly on the result. Anyone arguing the polls were tilted for or against one side has to answer for the other half of this table.
Michigan was the biggest overstatement. Siena's final poll had the Democrat up 11 points; the result was a 5.7-point win — Abdul El-Sayed took 51.8 percent, 2,236,824 votes, to Republican Mike Rogers' 46.2 percent, 1,992,133 votes. The poll found the right winner and the wrong size.
Texas was the biggest miss the other way. Siena had James Talarico up 7 points; he won by 11.9 — 55.0 percent, 5,207,970 votes, to Ken Paxton's 43.1 percent, 4,079,649 votes. The poll understated the Democrat by 4.9 points in the race that may have surprised the pollsters most.
Iowa went the same direction as Texas, by less. Siena's final poll there was virtually tied — 48 to 47 for the Democrat, a 1-point edge. Josh Turek won by 4.0 points, 50.5 percent to Ashley Hinson's 46.4 — an understatement of 3 points. Maine, too: Siena had Troy Jackson up 6; he beat Susan Collins by 7.9 points, 53.9 percent to 46.1.
Two races the poll nearly nailed. In Ohio's special election, Siena had Sherrod Brown up 5; he won by 4.2, 49.7 percent to Jon Husted's 45.5 — an overstatement of less than a point. In Kansas, Siena's 49-to-44 had the Democrat up 5; Adam Hamilton won by 4.9, about 51 percent to Roger Marshall's 46 — a miss of a tenth of a point.
Alaska is the one race still open. Siena's final poll had Mary Peltola up 2. The first count put Republican Dan Sullivan in front; the updated count has now flipped the lead to Peltola by 626 first-choice votes, and Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation is still ahead — so the poll's direction may yet prove right, and nothing about Alaska is final.
For voters, the lesson of this table is plain. This cycle's most-watched poll was a rough guide, not a verdict: it called every one of these winners correctly except the still-open Alaska race, but its margins ran from nearly exact to more than five points off, in both directions. A race that looks safe in a poll can be close, and a race that looks close can be a rout — which is an argument for voting, not for trusting the spread.
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