First posted on Instagram
Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Rally, is emerging as the front-runner for the presidential election in April 2027, with recent polls putting her ahead of every rival tested and betting markets giving her a better-than-even chance of winning, as weeks of street protests and anger over immigration, security and the cost of living shake the country's political establishment.
Her position gained an international dimension on Tuesday, October 20, when President Donald Trump, asked in the Oval Office whether he would endorse Le Pen, called her France's conservative voice. "Well, I don't know her. I haven't met her, but I thought she was badly treated. It would look like a weaponization to me when they did what they did," Trump said. "It would look to me like, you know, she was leading, but after this she's definitely, she's the conservative voice." He stopped short of a formal endorsement.
Polling underlines the shift. An Ifop survey conducted October 17-19 put Le Pen at 32 percent in the first round, 16 points ahead of far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and ahead in every second-round scenario tested, including 68 percent to 32 percent against Mélenchon, 56 percent to 44 percent against former prime minister Édouard Philippe, and 58 percent to 42 percent against Gabriel Attal. A separate Toluna Harris Interactive survey put her at 35 to 37 percent in the first round, with 67 percent against Mélenchon and 56 percent against Philippe in runoffs, and found 51 percent of respondents believed she would make a good president, up six points.
Betting markets tell a similar story. On Kalshi, Le Pen passed 50 percent in October and reached 53 percent on October 20, according to Politico, up from 39 percent a month earlier, as trading intensified during the protests.
Her supporters argue that President Emmanuel Macron has failed to address their concerns and that a Le Pen victory would bring tougher immigration policies, stronger border enforcement and a harder line on crime and security. Her critics warn that a hard-line immigration agenda could deepen social divisions, increase tensions between communities and undermine the rights of immigrants and minorities, while others argue that France's security and economic challenges cannot be blamed on immigration alone and require broader solutions.
Le Pen's path to the ballot was itself in doubt until this year. She was convicted of graft by a French court in March 2025 and initially banned from holding public office for five years, but an appeals court ruling this year paved the way for her to contest the 2027 election. Macron, who beat Le Pen in the runoffs of 2017 and 2022, is barred from seeking a third consecutive term.
Macron has pushed back against the American framing of the unrest. He called Trump's claims about the riots stupid and unacceptable, while French officials have focused on public-order concerns, violence during demonstrations and grievances raised by protesters, including overcrowded classrooms, teacher shortages and crumbling facilities.
For the establishment parties, the numbers are the problem: the National Rally is already France's largest single parliamentary party, and in September it secured enough Senate seats with its ally to form a parliamentary group for the first time. With the presidential vote in April 2027, the question now facing French politics is whether voters turn toward Le Pen's promise of tougher immigration controls and a political shake-up, or reject her approach in favour of a different direction for the country.