Result: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is projected to win Brazil's presidential runoff and secure a fourth term in the Planalto. With 96.83 per cent of sections counted, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 51.74 per cent to 48.26 per cent — a margin the remaining sections cannot overturn.
The projection caps a night that swung twice. Flávio, who won the first round on October 4, led the early count after polls closed two hours late; the lead flipped back to Lula around the halfway mark of the count, when barely thirteen thousand votes separated the two men, and from there the president's advantage widened steadily as the big-city sections reported. The two-hour extension — ordered after bus shortages in Salvador and São Paulo threatened to lock voters out, a fight that ended with a Bahia court ordering the arrest of Salvador's mobility chief — became part of the result's story: in the end, the voters who waited got counted.
Lula, who governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and returned to power in 2023, now wins a fourth presidential election, a record in the country's democratic era. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign has not yet conceded at the time of this update.
— Previously posted on Sunday, October 25, 2026 —
Polls closed at 7 p.m. Brasília time (6 p.m. ET) on Sunday in Brazil's presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, after a two-hour nationwide extension, and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) resumed the count. Flávio Bolsonaro has since overtaken Lula as more sections report. At 7:59 p.m. Brasília time (6:59 p.m. ET), with 21.84% of sections counted, Flávio Bolsonaro had 50.47% of valid votes (13,637,217) and Lula 49.53% (13,384,027), a gap of 253,190 votes, according to TSE figures. No winner has been declared. Earlier, at 7:23 p.m. Brasília time (6:23 p.m. ET) with 3.3% counted, Lula had led 51.34% to 48.66%, and at 1.5% counted the margin had been 52.27% to 47.73%. The Guardian's TSE tracker showed Flávio Bolsonaro first moving ahead by 7:51 p.m. Brasília time, 50.21% to 49.79% at 16.4% counted.
The Federal Police (PF) said it has opened a formal investigation in Sergipe and preliminary inquiries in São Paulo, Bahia, Alagoas and Piauí into bus shortages that may have kept voters from reaching the polls. "The crimes under investigation are obstructing the exercise of the vote and also concealing means of transport to hinder the exercise of the vote," said Dennis Cali, the PF's director of investigation and combating organized crime and corruption. He said officers were taking statements on Sunday from people involved in supplying public transport, and that the preliminary inquiries could become formal investigations.
Why voting was extended
Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin on Sunday extended voting nationwide by two hours, to 7 p.m. Brasília time (6 p.m. ET), in the presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro. He granted a request from Lula's campaign, which said a lack of public buses had kept voters from reaching the polls. Polls were originally set to close at 5 p.m.
"Considering the seriousness of the facts reported, which reached the Supreme Federal Court at 16:32:49 today, and given the evident urgency of the measure, I order an extension of two hours, until 7 p.m. Brasília time, of the close of voting in all sections throughout Brazil," Zanin wrote.
The complaint began in Bahia. There, hundreds of buses were kept in their garages in Salvador, and the regional electoral court ordered the full fleet restored under a fine of R$1 million per hour, along with the arrest of Salvador's municipal mobility secretary, Pablo Souza. Lula's coalition then widened its petition to at least nine states, including São Paulo, where only about 60% of buses were reportedly running despite a court order for the full fleet. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign separately asked for a two-hour extension in parts of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul hit by heavy rain.
The Electoral Prosecutor's Office opposed a nationwide extension. Deputy Electoral Prosecutor General Alexandre Espinosa told the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) that "the voting hours set by law must remain unchanged," and that any abuse should be investigated and punished separately.
The TSE paused the count, which had already started, after the ruling. Before the pause, at 5:06 p.m. Brasília time (4:06 p.m. ET), with 1,225 of 499,248 sections counted (0.25%), Lula had 57.66% (193,574 votes) and Flávio Bolsonaro 42.34% (142,169). That early sample is far too small to indicate a winner. Counting resumed after polls closed at 7 p.m. Brasília time.
Sources
Photo: Lula (official campaign photo, CC BY-SA 4.0) and Flávio Bolsonaro (May 21, 2026, CC BY-SA 4.0), via Wikimedia Commons
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